Shaw pulls within 19 but falling just short of Dahl in Tucson Council primary

Sadie Shaw has picked up a majority of the ballots counted after Election Day, pulling within 19 with just a handful remaining in the Democratic primary as she seeks to knock Tucson Councilman Kevin Dahl out of his Ward 3 seat. 

The handful of ballots remaining to tally is not large enough for Shaw to close the gap unless a recount shifts the outcome.

That recount in the race is almost certain to happen.

Shaw picked up more than 60 percent of the votes added to the count after Tuesday, closing the margin between the challenger and the incumbent.

“This is why we mean it when we say, ‘Every vote counts,'” Shaw posted online Friday, urging her supporters to resolve any outstanding issues among the uncounted ballots in the race.

A breakdown of remaining ballots posted Friday afternoon by the City Clerk’s Office showed that just 13 ballots remained to be counted in the Ward 3 Democratic primary. Overall, 71 ballots were left to be counted across all of the wards.

The Tucson Unified School District Governing Board member had been trailing Dahl by 138 votes Tuesday night in the primary election, with about 800 left to tally.

After a surprise afternoon update Friday, only 71 ballots remain to counted across all three wards in which votes were cast. Those are the ballots determined to be valid following the “curing” period in which voters cleared up signature problems and other issues by 5 p.m. Friday. The remaining ballots will be tabulated Monday, with the City Council meeting to approve the official canvass of the election shifted a day later, to Tuesday.

In updated results, Dahl had 3,288 votes to Shaw’s 3,269, the City Clerk’s Office said.

When the initial results were released after the polls closed on Election Day, Dahl had 2,993 votes, while Shaw had 2,855 in the North Side ward.

In the uncontested Republican primary, Janet Wittenbraker had 1,508 votes in the ward. Another 13 votes were cast for unrecognized Libertarian write-in candidates.

After Tuesday, a total of 812 ballots had been left to be reviewed and counted in the Ward 3 contest, according to an update posted Thursday on the Tucson City Clerk’s website.

City officials had repeatedly said throughout the week that no new updates would be released until Monday. But they then posted the update on Friday, without any public notice.

Voters had until 5 p.m. Friday to cure, or fix, any problems with their ballots.

If the final tally between the two Democrats is less than one-half of one percent of the votes cast for them, officials will have to recount the ballots under state law.

The 71 remaining ballots were not limited to the Ward 3 primary. Most were in the Ward 6 Democratic primary, where there were 40 ballots left. In Ward 3, there were 13 uncounted ballots in the Democratic primary, and 5 in the uncontested GOP race.

The recount trigger for the latest total tally in Ward 3 would be 33 votes. Dahl would have to gain a margin of at least 14 extra votes among the remaining ballots to win the primary and not have a recount triggered — meaning a recount is a foregone conclusion.

That recount would be a re-run of the ballots through tabulating machines, not a hand recount procedure, city officials said.

A recount cannot commence until after the Council votes to approve the canvass. After that, under Arizona law, a judge must order the votes to be recounted.

In Friday’s update, more than 80 percent of the newly counted ballots were cast by Ward 3 Democrats, and Shaw picked up the votes from about 61 percent of those late ballots. 

But there are not enough ballots remaining in the ward primary for Shaw to close the lead, unless the recount changes the ultimate tally.

Dahl claimed ‘victory’ Tuesday night

While the Tucson Sentinel noted the race as “too close to call” on Tuesday, Dahl proclaimed victory on election night.

“This is a victory that needs to be confirmed,” he said. “It’s a close call, but not too close to call.”

Shaw said on Facebook she voted on Election Day so her ballot was among those awaiting tabulation.

“Every vote reflects a Ward 3 voice, and in a race this tight, it’s important not to jump to conclusions,” Shaw had said Tuesday. “I’m still waiting for all the votes to be counted, which we’ve heard might not be finished until Monday.”

Turnout in the Ward 3 race stood at just under 30 percent.

The winner of the Ward 3 Democratic primary will face Wittenbraker, who has previously unsuccessfully run for mayor and county supervisor, in the Nov. 4 general election.

The updated results did not change the leaders in the primaries in Wards 5 and 6, where the winners were clear on Tuesday.

Recounts seldom change outcomes

Previous
recounts in Arizona have not changed more than a handful of votes. In
the 2014 congressional election between U.S. Rep. Ron Barber and GOP
challenger Martha McSally, the Republican tacked on just 6 votes to her winning total after a recount ended the race on Dec. 17. McSally won that race by just 167 votes, out of 219,261 cast.

A recount in the 2022 state attorney general’s race
between Kris Mayes and Abe Hamadeh found ballot-counting errors in
Pinal County that added 507 votes to the tally, but did not change the
declared outcome of the election.

Pima County Sheriff Chris Nanos fended off a challenge by Republican candidate Heather Lappin last year, with a recount in the countywide race adding 14 votes in her favor. Nanos won by 495 votes out of 487,225 cast between the candidates.