Despite a deluge of Democratic cash, Republicans poised to grow their legislative majorities

The record spending by Democrats
in their pursuit of legislative majorities appears likely to be a swing
and a miss, as Republicans are poised to actually expand their hold on
power in both chambers after ballots were counted Wednesday.

Democrats spent more money than ever
in their bid to flip control of Arizona’s legislature away from
Republicans, pouring more than $10 million into a handful of
battleground races in suburban districts. 

With Donald Trump heading the ballot
for the GOP and voters in all parties — but particularly women —
outraged at the 2022 Supreme Court ruling overturning Roe v. Wade, Democrats saw 2024 as their best opportunity in generations to make a serious play for power at the Arizona Capitol.

And while initial results Tuesday
night looked promising, continued counting of early ballots dropped off
at polling locations on Election Day has not just eroded those hopes,
but put Republicans in position to strengthen their slim majorities in
both the state Senate and House of Representatives.

For the last four years, Republicans
have clung to one-vote majorities in both chambers — 31 House seats and
16 in the Senate. But now they stand on the verge of picking up at least
one seat in both the House and the Senate — and possibly more,
depending on how the yet-to-be-counted ballots break.

In the Senate, Wednesday’s tally saw
GOP newcomer Carine Werner surge past incumbent Democrat Christine Marsh
in Legislative District 4, a swing district that includes parts of
northeast Phoenix, Scottsdale and Cave Creek. Marsh began Wednesday
leading by just 38 votes, but by early evening, Werner had overtaken her
and led by more than 1,600 votes.

And in two other contests, Republican
candidates moved within striking distance of Democrats. In southern
Arizona’s Legislative District 17, which runs from Marana and Oro Valley
to eastern Tucson, former lawmaker Vince Leach trimmed about 4,000
votes from Democratic newcomer John McLean’s lead. Leach now trails by
just 763 votes.

That seat is currently held by Republican Sen. Justine Wadsack, who lost her primary election to Leach, and was one of the top targets for Democrats this year.

In Mesa-centric Legislative District
9, Democratic incumbent Eva Burch is nursing a 1,600-vote lead over
Republican Robert Scantlebury in a rematch of the 2022 election. 

Democrats had hoped to oust Sen.
Shawnna Bolick in north Phoenix’s Legislative District 2, but the lead
Judy Schwiebert built on Tuesday has evaporated. On Wednesday, Bolick
expanded her lead from 1,200 votes to nearly 1,900, leaving Schwiebert
with little hope of capturing the seat.

If Bolick and Werner hold on to their
narrow leads, and Leach and Scantlebury come from behind to win,
Republicans would have 19 Senate seats, one shy of a supermajority.

In House contests, Republicans seem almost certain to wrest a seat from Democrats in Legislative District 13,
which stretches from Chandler to Sun Lakes. At one point, Democrat
Brandy Reese was leading the four-way field, but Republicans Jeff
Weninger and Julie Willoughby — one of the incumbents — flew past her in
counting on Wednesday, and Reese now trails by about 2,800 votes.

Reese had aimed to hold a Democratic
seat currently occupied by Jennifer Pawlik, while fellow Democrat
Nicholas Gonzales hoped to pick up Willoughby’s. 

And Republicans look likely to pick
up another Democrat-held seat in Pinal County’s Legislative District 16,
where Keith Seaman’s reelection bid has left him in third place, more
than 4,000 votes behind GOP hopeful Chris Lopez.

The lone bright spot for Democrats in
the House is Kevin Volk in LD17, who leads the three-way contest for
the two House seats over GOP incumbents Rachel Jones and Cory McGarr.
Volk leads Jones by more than 4,200 votes, and McGarr is about 1,600
behind her.

Republicans are also threatening to
take two more Democratic seats. In LD4, Democrat Kelli Butler — a former
legislator who hopes to return to the House by defending a seat
Democrats won in 2022 — leads Republican Pamela Carter by a scant 150
votes in the battle for the district’s second House seat. 

And in LD9, Republicans Kylie Barber
and Mary Ann Mendoza are both nipping at the heels of Rep. Seth
Blattmann, a Democrat who won in 2022 and is seeking reelection to a
second term. Barber and Mendoza are separated by just 6 votes, and are
less than 400 votes behind Blattmann.