Democrat Kevin Volk wins House seat in Tucson’s GOP-leaning district

Democrat Kevin Volk has won a seat in the Arizona House of Representatives in Legislative District 17, defeating Republican opponent Cory McGarr in the GOP-leaning territory.

The win is the sole exception to Republican dominance in competitive races in Southern Arizona legislative races.

As of Wednesday’s latest count of Pima County votes, Volk had 34 percent of the vote, Jones had 33 percent and McGarr had 32 percent, with Volk ahead of McGarr by 5,003 votes.

Volk had told the Sentinel before the latest vote release that he wasn’t ready to declare victory, but did so Wednesday night.

“I am humbled to have been elected to represent Legislative District 17 in the Arizona House of Representatives,” Volk said. “We worked hard and ran a strong campaign, and the people have had their voices heard. They’re tired of extreme, divisive politics. They want leaders to focus on public service — getting things done that improve lives for Arizonans. It is a great responsibility that I take seriously. It’s time to get to work.”

McGarr did not respond to a request for comment on his loss from the Tucson Sentinel, but he conceded that he had lost the race during a Tuesday appearance on the Afternoon Addiction radio show.

But while he admitted he had lost, a McGarr told host Garret Lewis that according to his calculations, the results appeared rigged.

“I’m calling for an investigation into what Pima County did, because it makes absolutely no sense,” said McGarr, who added that it was inconceivable to him that he could lose such a heavily GOP district.

LD17 includes precincts in Pinal County’s
Saddlebrooke and Pima County’s Oro Valley and Marana, as well as
Tucson’s East Side and Vail. 

Although
Republicans have a 9-percentage-point voter-registration advantage in
LD 17, Democrats targeted the possibility of capturing a House and Senate in
the district. Strategists noted that Democrats Mark Kelly, Katie Hobbs
and Adrian Fontes all won LD17 in 2022 and say the district is now
represented by some of the most extreme Republicans in the Legislature.

But Democrats fell short in the Senate race, where Republican Vince Leach was leading Democrat John McLean by an unsurmountable 2,986 votes after Wednesday’s votes were tabulated.

Leach, who had captured 77,117 votes to McLean’s 74,131, is a former state lawmaker who was ousted in a primary by current Sen. Justine Wadsack in 2022. Leach came back to defeat Wadsack in this year’s GOP primary.

McLean, the former CEO of a local defense contractor, was making his first run for public office.

The final count across the state is expected to be completed this week but several counties have been lagging. As of Wednesday at 10 p.m., more than a week after the election, Cochise County had reported counting just 67 percent of its ballots, with nearly 20,000 ballots still outstanding, and Yuma County had counted just 72 percent of its ballots and had an estimated 19,584 ballot left to tabulate.

By contrast, Pima County had counted 512,659 ballots as of Wednesday night, for a total of 98 percent, and estimated it had 8,813 left to count, according to a report filed with the Arizona Secretary of State’s Office. But among them are 6,090 provisional ballots that may not ultimately be included in the total of valid votes cast.

Many provisional ballots are cast by residents of other counties or states, and cannot be included in the tallies in Arizona counties.

Pinal County had not updated its vote totals
since Friday night as of 10 p.m. Wednesday. Election officials had counted 209,921 ballots and
estimated they had 4,023 ballots left to count as of Friday night,
including 3,723 provisional ballots that might not make the final cut.

Legislative District 17 is one of three Tucson-area districts that were crucial to the balance of power in the Legislature next year. The others are Legislative Districts 16 and 23. Democrats appeared poised to lose a House seat in one of those districts and were falling short of a campaign to oust a GOP House incumbent in the other.

District 16

In GOP-leaning District 16, which now has bipartisan representation in the House of Representatives, Democratic Rep. Keith Seaman continued to trail Republican opponent Chris Lopez. As of Wednesday, Lopez led Seaman by 3,627 votes.

In a concession statement Wednesday, Seaman said he had dedicated his life to public service, including a stint in the Air Force Reserves and a career in education.

“As your representative for the last two years, I’ve worked hard, often against the grain, to legislative for a brighter future for our district,” Seaman said. “The results of the election are disappointing, of course. But in this country, we respect the results no matter what. This campaign was hard fought, and I am thankful for everyone who volunteered their time for me and my daughter.”

His seatmate, Republican Rep. Teresa Martinez, was ahead of both candidates in the race for two seats in the House of Representatives.

Most of District’s 16’s voters live in Pinal County, but about 17 percent live in Northwestern Pima County.

Republican Sen. T.J. Shope was ahead of Democratic challenger Stacey Seaman, the daughter of Keith Seaman, with 56 percent of the vote.

Legislative District 23

In Legislative District 23, Democrats were falling short of their campaign to oust a Republican in the Arizona House of Representatives.

In the race for two House seats in this Democrat-leaning district, Republican Michele Peña had captured 34,232 votes as of Wednesday, while Democratic state Rep. Mariana Sandoval had 32,554 votes and fellow Democrat Matias Rosales had 28,766 votes.

Peña overcame the district’s Democratic voter-registration advantage to win a House seat two years ago.

Democratic incumbent Sen. Brian Fernandez had captured 52 percent of the vote against Republican Michelle Altherr.

The largest chunk of Legislative District 23’s voters—47 percent—live in Yuma County and 34 percent live in rural and suburban Maricopa County, with handful of precincts in Pinal County. The district stretches east into Pima County, which is home to 19 percent of the voters, including precincts across the Tohono O’odham Nation, such as in the community of Sells and around the San Xavier Mission.

Yuma County, which had not updated its vote tally from Monday as of 8 p.m. Tuesday, still had an estimated 24,147 votes left to count and had only counted 66 percent of its ballots nearly a week after Election Day.