Ciscomani & Schweikert face well-funded Democrats in toss-up districts that could be key in 2026 midterms

The three Arizona Republicans whose U.S. House seats the Democrats
hope to nab next year hold comfortable fundraising leads, midyear
campaign filings show.

Democrats are targeting Reps. David Schweikert of Fountain Hills, Juan Ciscomani of Tucson and Eli Crane of Oro Valley.

Ciscomani has raised $2.3 million compared to $1.3 million for one of
the Democrats seeking to take him on, JoAnna Mendoza, a Marine veteran
and former congressional staffer.

“He starts off in a very good place financially,” said Matthew Klein, an analyst at the Cook Political Report.

Ciscomani won his second term last November by 3 percentage points,
the narrowest margin among the six Arizona Republicans in the U.S.
House.

That was a costly race: He raised $7 million. Democratic challenger Kirsten Engel raised $8.5 million.

Ciscomani’s campaign touted a blowout quarter, though the $1,050,000
he raised from March 1 to June 30 is $200,000 less than he raised in the
first three months of the year.

Mendoza’s campaign boasted that she received donations from more than 60,000 individuals.

“We are well on our way to retiring Juan Ciscomani and bringing
servant leadership back to government,” her campaign said Wednesday.

Given the advantages of incumbency, Klein said, “Every dollar is crucial on the Democratic side.”

The Cook Political Report rates the Schweikert and Ciscomani races as
toss-ups, thanks in part to the traditional headwinds the president’s
party faces in midterms.

In midterm elections, the president’s party has lost House seats all
but three times since the Great Depression – in 1934, 1998 and 2002.
Democrats would need to flip a handful of seats to retake the majority.

“This probably is shaping up to look like a fairly traditional
midterm election,” Klein said. “That doesn’t mean Democrats are going to
pick up every seat that they want … but that does mean that they might
have a little bit of a leg up in some of the seats that they were
targeting in 2024.”

Schweikert fended off his challenger last November by 3.8 percentage
points, winning his eighth term, even though Democrat Amish Shah
outraised him $5.8 million to $4.2 million.

So far in the 2026 cycle, Schweikert has raised about $1.6 million.
That includes $736,000 in the three months ending June 30, down $109,000
from the first quarter.

The leading Democrat in fundraising, businessman Jonathan Treble,
raised $329,000. Treble also loaned his campaign $672,000, putting his
tally over $1 million.

“Arizona Congressional Republicans delivered another strong
fundraising quarter where they significantly outraised their Democrat
opponents and built their war chests,” said Ben Petersen, spokesperson
for the National Republican Congressional Committee, the party’s House
campaign arm. “This powerful fundraising makes clear Arizonans are fired
up to re-elect Representatives David Schweikert and Juan Ciscomani.”

Crane appears less vulnerable at the moment. Cook rates his seat as competitive but likely Republican.

Democrat Jonathan Nez, a former Navajo Nation president who lost to
Crane by 9 percentage points last November, has raised less than
$100,000 this cycle, compared to $2.4 million for Crane, and has not yet
said whether he will seek a rematch.

Both spent lavishly last fall. Crane raised a whopping $8.6 million. Nez raised $5.5 million.

“No amount of money from D.C. Party Bosses is going to save David
Schweikert, Eli Crane, and Juan Ciscomani’s political careers,” said
Lindsey Reilly, spokesperson for the Democratic Congressional Campaign
Committee, the NRCC’s counterpart.

Referring to the One Big Beautiful Bill that Trump signed July 4, she
added, “Schweikert, Crane, and Ciscomani betrayed Arizonans – and
voters will fire them for it next year.”

In Tuesday’s special Democratic primary for the seat left vacant by
the death of longtime congressman Raul Grijalva of Tucson, Adelita
Grijalva – his daughter – won easily with 62% of the vote, trouncing
Deja Foxx (21%) and Daniel Hernandez (14%).

Grijalva and Hernandez each raised about $1,030,000 as of last week. Foxx raised $600,000.

Grijalva is heavily favored to win a September special general
election to fill the remainder of her father’s term. Democrats dominate
the district, which covers most of the state’s border with Mexico.