Barajas & Schubert winning Dems in Tucson Council primaries; Dahl holds narrow lead over Shaw

Selina Barajas and Miranda Schubert were winning their races in Tuesday’s Democratic primary for Tucson City Council in the first returns, while Councilmember Kevin Dahl had a 138-vote lead over Sadie Shaw in a race that’s still too close to call.

In Tucson, three seats are up for grabs in Wards 3, 5 and 6, with open seats in two of the races in the November general election.

Incumbent Dahl had 50 percent of the vote in his race for a second term in Ward 3, while challenger Sadie Shaw had 48 percent in the North Side ward. The TUSD School Board member trailed by just 138 votes, with ballots handed in on Tuesday not yet tallied. The sitting councilmember had 2,993 votes, while the challenger had 2,855 votes.

There were no more vote totals expected to be released by officials on Tuesday night. Tucson officials said that around 1,777 ballots were yet to be tallied, with the final results to be released next Monday. It’s not known how many of those ballots are from Ward 3.

Even so, Dahl told a crowd of Democrats gathered Downtown that, “I’m declaring a victory that will be confirmed” after earlier acknowledging to the Sentinel that the race wasn’t yet determined. “My fellow candidate for Ward 3 did a great job. It wasn’t too close to call, but it was a close call.”

Barajas, a local entrepreneur, had 2,025 votes in her three-way race in Ward 5. Businessman Jesse Lugo had 1,189 votes in that South Side ward primary, while Peace Corps administrator Chris Elsner had 288.

Schubert, a community organizer making her second run for City Council, had 5,254 votes in Ward 6. In second place in the Midtown ward was attorney Leighton Rockafellow Jr. with 2,536 votes, while retired science teacher Jim Sinex had 324 votes.

Schubert thanked her supporters in a brief victory speech at a Democratic primary night party at Hotel Congress. There were about 160 gathered at the event.

“I love local politics because it’s so simple,” she said. “It comes down to having conversations, having conversations with your neighbors and with your fellow community members, and so I hope that this can be the start of more conversations and more work to come together to make Tucson a better place for future generations.”

Schubert told the Tucson Sentinel that the win felt “surreal. It is amazing. I feel really honored by the trust that the voters have given me, and I feel very committed. I feel a deep sense of responsibility.”

Sinex told the Sentinel that he was disappointed by reporting on the race and that local news doesn’t “cover wisdom.”

“They say that democracy is on the ballot and there’s too much money in politics. I’m the only one who went by that,” he said, noting that his campaign cost $600. “You want to talk economics? I win. Dollars per vote? I win.”

Barajas said of her win on the South Side that her campaign had knocked on 13,000 doors and heard concerns about affordable housing and the environment, noting that Ward 5 has a history of water contamination and the lowest air quality in the city.

“It’s going to be important for our neighbors in Ward 5 to engage with each other, now more than ever,” Barajas said, saying she’s ready to “work for clean and safe air, water and land.”

Although there isn’t going to be an opponent listed on the ballot in her ward in the general election, she said “we’re still going to canvas, still going to reach people, still going to hold roundtables. Because it’s not stopping.”

Of the Ward 3 count, Shaw said after the first results were released that she’s “feeling great. Happy we’re so close.”

Wednesday morning, she posted online, saying, “Despite the early declaration of victory by my opponent, I do agree with one thing he said: ‘every vote counts.’ In that spirit, I’m still waiting until every vote has been accounted for.”

If she goes on to win, she would be the first Democrat to knock out an elected fellow party member in a Council primary since Bruce Wheeler beat Rudy Bejarano in 1987.

Dahl, at the party at Congress, told the Sentinel that “it’s not quite a victory because there are ballots (left) and every ballot should be counted” but that he was “confident” his lead would hold.

“But the number of ballots remaining; 3% is hard to overcome. It does go to show that every vote counts,” he said, when word from city officials is that about 800 ballots had been uncounted as of around 4 p.m. They later revised that figure to more than 1,700, after reviewing more ballots that were dropped off on Election Day.

City election officials said they would not be releasing more results Tuesday, but the ballots tabulated so far represent the majority of votes cast in the election. The remainder of the results will be released Monday, City Clerk Suzanne Mesich told the Sentinel.

The primary results will set up this year’s Nov. 4 election.

Mayor Regina Romero told the party of Democrats that “Tucsonans want to continue to make sure that we have the council that will continue supporting affordable housing, that will continue supporting free transit in our city, that will support a bold agenda.”

In Ward 6, Schubert will face Republican Jay Tolkoff, who is making his first political run.

In Ward 3, the Democratic winner will face Republican Janet Wittenbraker, who is
making her third run for office in as many years. Wittenbraker made her
political debut in an unsuccessful race for mayor of Tucson in 2023.
She followed that with a 2024 loss in a race for the Board of
Supervisors against Democrat Jen Allen.

“Tucson is ready for change, especially in Ward 3, where poverty, homelessness, and high crime rates resulted in a competitive race between Shaw and Dahl,” she said after the results were released.

Wittenbraker and about two dozen other Republicans gathered at a hastily organized party at the Viscount Suites in Midtown, setting up a handful of tables with GOP swag in the atrium outside the closed Wilbur’s Grill.

“Had Tucson Sentinel provided equal coverage to me, the Republican candidate, I could have connected more effectively with independent voters, who must choose a Democratic or Republican ballot in the primary,” said Wittenbraker, who spent part of her Election Day complaining on X/Twitter about what she sees as a lack of reporting on her campaign. “While some may argue my uncontested primary made this irrelevant, data suggests that primary voters are likely to support the same candidate in the general election.”

The repeat GOP candidate didn’t address the fact that primary elections that include more than one candidate have participants who vote for someone who doesn’t move on to the general election — making the losing candidates difficult to vote for at that point.

The Republican Party did not field a primary candidate in Ward 5. Barring a successful write-in campaign in November, Barajas will take office at the beginning of December.

Meanwhile, in the mile-square city of South Tucson, Mayor Roxanna
Valenzuela and two City Council members faced a recall election, but easily survived when only write-in candidates filed to run against them. The challengers garnered only a handful of votes in the low-turnout contest.

In both cities, elections are conducted by mail and election officials sent ballots to all eligible voters.

On Election Day in Tucson, voting centers were open in each of the contested wards where voters could get replacement ballots or drop off their completed vote-by-mail ballots and eligible independent voters could a party ballot.