Arizona faces outsized burden if Colorado River states miss February deadline

Not everyone with a stake in the
future of Arizona’s access to Colorado River water feels “cautiously
optimistic” about water usage negotiations among the seven Colorado
River Basin states. 

The governors of six of the seven
states, including Arizona Gov. Katie Hobbs, said they were cautiously
optimistic that the states would reach a deal after they met in
Washington D.C. last week to hash things out, in a meeting called by
U.S. Secretary of the Interior Doug Burgum. 

Reaching a water usage agreement is
vital to the basin states as the Colorado River’s water supply continues
to decline, as it has done for the past 25 years due to a persistent
drought spurred on by climate change. 

Burgum called the meeting at Hobbs’
request after the states missed a Nov. 11 deadline to reach an agreement
and with a new Feb. 14 deadline rapidly approaching. 

Prior to the meeting, the two basins were at an impasse, and it’s still unclear if the meeting changed that. 

The Lower Basin states — Arizona,
Nevada and California — insist that the Upper Basin states — Colorado,
New Mexico, Utah, and Wyoming — should have to share in mandatory usage
reductions in times of drought. 

The Upper Basin states have so far
refused required cuts, because they already use far less water than the
lower basin states. Representatives from the Upper Basin have insisted
that Lower Basin states need to come to terms with the reality that the
river has shrunk by 20% over the past 25 years. 

If the states can’t reach an
agreement before the current water usage guidelines expire in October,
the federal government would implement one of its draft plans, which
would all place an outsized burden on the Grand Canyon State. 

That’s because the Central Arizona
Project, a series of canals that supplies Colorado River water to the
Valley and the Tucson area, is one of the newest users of the river
water, making it legally one of the first to be cut. 

Brenda Burman, the general manager of
the Central Arizona Project, said during an Arizona Reconsultation
Committee meeting on Monday that the answer to a shrinking Colorado
River cannot be painful cuts for Arizonans alone. 

“We need everyone to be taking on
some risk,” she said. “All of the risk cannot fall to the Central
Arizona Project and Arizona. That’s simply not acceptable.” 

State negotiators for both the Upper
and Lower Basin have said they would prefer a seven-state agreement over
alternative river management options proposed by the federal
government. 

The Colorado River is a vital source
of drinking water for 40 million people in the seven basin states,
Mexico and 30 Native American tribes, and provides water for farming
operations and hydroelectricity. 

Gila River Indian Community Gov.
Stephen Roe Lewis, whose community relies on CAP water, shared a
particularly pessimistic message about an agreement, but called for
unity among Arizonans and the Lower Basin states. 

“The prospects for success, I think we all know, seem pretty dim at this point,” Lewis said. 

The Colorado River Compact dates back
to 1922, when the seven states made their initial agreement, allocating
7.5 million acre-feet of water each year to be shared by the Upper
Basin states and another 7.5 million to be used among the Lower Basin
states. The states have updated their water usage guidelines several
times since then, but those apportionments remain the same, but lower
basin states face mandatory cuts during times of drought and Upper Basin
states do not. 

In 2025, for the fifth year in a row,
the federal government imposed water allocation cuts on the Colorado
River due to the ongoing drought and Arizona’s cut amounts to a loss of
512,000 acre-feet of water for the year. 

Also part of the original Colorado
River Compact was a guarantee that the Upper Basin states would release a
10-year rolling average of at least 75 million acre-feet of water to
the Lower Basin, in addition to one-half of the annual allotment owed to
Mexico, for a total of about 80.2 million acre-feet. 

So far, the Upper Basin states have
held to that agreement. But as water levels in the two major reservoirs
on the river, Lake Mead and Lake Powell, continue to decline, it’s
expected that the Upper Basin states will be unable to meet that
requirement as early as 2027. 

Both Burman and Lewis insisted that there must be consequences if the Upper Basin states fail to meet that obligation. 

Lewis described the guaranteed
release of those 80.2 million acre-feet as an essential part of the Gila
River Indian Community’s 2004 water rights settlement with the federal
government that provided the community with more that 650,000 acre-feet
of water every year. 

“Any unilateral action by the
Department of the Interior that fails to uphold this minimum release,
which the community relied and negotiated on in good faith, would in our
view, constitute a blatant violation of the United States’
responsibility to protect our CAP water,” Lewis said. 

Tom Buschatzke, director of the
Arizona Department of Water Resources and the state’s main Colorado
River water negotiator, said that the Lower Basin would consider
relinquishing the 80.2 million acre-feet requirement only if the Upper
Basin agrees to take its share of mandatory cuts. 

But Buschatzke said the Upper Basin had insisted it cannot handle cuts during dry years.

“The Upper Basin has told me on more
than one occasion that, in a dry year, ‘we just can’t do some of this
stuff,’” Buschatzke said. 

Under current allocations, Arizona
has rights to 2.8 million acre feet of water per year, and has
implemented 800,000 acre feet in reductions per year. In contrast,
Colorado gets 3.6 million acre feet a year, but has said it can’t handle
cutting 50,000 acre-feet during dry years. 

“I just have a hard time wrapping my head around that,” Buschatzke said. 

However, Colorado doesn’t always get
that full allotment, because it relies mostly on melted snowpack for its
water, which varies from year to year. This year’s snowpack levels are
historically low. 

The Lower Basin states have
undertaken significant conservation efforts for Colorado River water
since 2014 and have reduced their consumption from 7.4 million acre-feet in 2015 to just over 6 million in 2024.

The Upper Basin states have increased their usage in the past five years, from 3.9 million acre-feet in 2021 to 4.4 million in 2024. The federal government’s draft plans allow for the Upper Basin states to use even more water. 

If the states can’t reach an
agreement and are forced to take one of the federal government’s
proposals, it will likely lead to litigation — something that the states
agree they would prefer to avoid. 

Last year, Arizona put a total of $3
million to its Colorado River legal defense fund, and Gov. Katie Hobbs’
proposed budget for this year would put another $1 million toward that
fund. 

It’s unclear what exactly will happen
if the states can’t come to an agreement by Feb. 14, but  Buschatzke
said that, no matter what, either the states or the federal government
will have to finalize a plan by late summer to be implemented in October
when the current guidelines lapse. 

Burman and Buschatzke told reporters
after the Arizona Reconsultation Committee meeting on Monday that the
state has backup plans to ensure Arizona has water, regardless of
possible restrictions put in place by the federal government. 

“Water managers are very good at making sure that our water supplies are secure. That’s our job” Burman said. 

The state has more than 400 million
acre-feet of water banked underground, and has hundreds of millions set
aside to support projects to bring alternative water sources to the
state. 

“We’ve been planning for this for a very long time,” Buschatzke said.