Invest 92L tracker: Tropical depression possible near Florida this weekend, National Hurricane Center says

ORLANDO, Fla. – The odds of tropical development for a system east of Florida and off the southeastern coast of the United States have increased, according to the National Hurricane Center.

The NHC said the system – known as Invest 92L – is about 150 miles off the coast of Florida, and that it has become better defined as of Friday afternoon.

A short-lived depression – subtropical or tropical – could form sometime Friday or Saturday, as the system continues to move northwards towards the southeastern U.S. Coast.

As of 2 p.m. On Friday, the chances of development are 70% over the next 48 hours and 7 days.

Regardless of development, heavy rain and potential flooding are likely across Florida through the Fourth of July weekend.

Invest 92L Spaghetti models: Where is it headed? 

Big picture view:

he NHC says the system located about 150 miles off the northeast Florida coast, designated Invest 92L, has become better defined with an area of strong winds located on its east side. Showers and thunderstorms are also persisting near and to the east of the center.

Weather officials believe a tropical or subtropical depression could form near the southeastern U.S. later today or on Saturday while the system drifts generally north-northwestward. This low is expected to move inland over the southeastern U.S. by early Sunday.

Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is possible across portions of west-central and southwestern Florida through early Saturday, and across coastal sections of the Carolinas beginning later on Saturday. 

As of Friday afternoon, the chances of development in the next seven days are 70%, and the chances of development within the next 48 hours have increased to 70%.

What can we expect in Florida?

What To Expect:

The FOX 35 Storm Team said this sytem will likely bring daily storms, showers and downpours to the state. Some may be severe with strong winds and large hail.

With plenty of tropical moisture in place, a lot of rain will fall over a short period of time.

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The best chances of rain will be during the afternoon, with the peak heating of the day lasting into at least Saturday.

So far, areas along the Florida Gulf coast, specifically near Tampa through the Big Bend region, will be where the highest rainfall totals will be. This is where more than 6 inches of rain could fall.

Florida Fourth of July Forecast

The FOX 35 Storm Team has designated Friday as a Weather Impact Day due to the strong showers and storms expected across Central Florida. 

The day starts off dry, warm, humid and muggy thanks to the tropical moisture we still have in place, which will lead to more heavy downpours and storms this afternoon. 

Multiple rounds and waves of showers and storms can be expected to impact any Fourth of July holiday plans outdoors. That being said, there will still be dry spots and short-lived breaks in the rain.

Isolated downpours will begin popping up around noon today. The chances of rain will peak at 70%, with the best chances of rain taking place from 3-9 p.m. With the amount of tropical moisture in the atmosphere, heavy downpours can be expected. A lot of rain will fall over short periods of time. 

For any fireworks plans, it will be a close call when it comes to the rain. The data continues to show the rain lightening up, especially close to 10-11 p.m. The later the time, the better chances of dry time.

What’s the difference between a tropical storm and a tropical depression?

Dig deeper:

Hurricanes begin as cyclones, and if the system intensifies, it becomes a tropical wave, then a tropical depression, followed by a tropical storm and, eventually, a hurricane. 

When a low pressure area is accompanied by thunderstorms producing a circular wind flow with maximum sustained winds below 39 mph, the system is designated a tropical depression.

If the cyclonic circulation becomes more organized with maximum sustained wind gusts between 39 mph and 73 mph, a tropical storm is formed. 

A tropical storm has winds near the center and is symmetrical, while a subtropical storm has winds far from the center and is less symmetrical. A tropical storm is fueled by warm water, while a subtropical storm is fueled by warm water and cold air. 

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