Horne says new study shows ESA misspending is low

PHOENIX — Arizona Superintendent Tom Horne released a new statistical analysis of ESA expenses over seven months, showing 6% of transactions were considered “unallowable.” Total dollars misspent by ESA account holders, according to the study, was 2%. 

Horne said the results should dispel “outrageous misrepresentations” about fraud rates of Arizona’s ESA program, the first universal voucher program of its kind launched in 2022.

“It’s a proper random sample to reflect the whole thing,” Horne said, speaking to 12News on Thursday. A spokesperson for Horne said his Associate Superintendent for Accountability, Dr. Joseph Guzman, oversaw the study. A one-page summary describes the study as a sample of “3,000 randomly selected ESA orders” between July 2025 and February 2026.

Horne said the study shows “actual fraud or egregious purchases are at 0.3%.”  What constitutes “actual fraud or egregious purchases,” as described by Horne, the study does not say. Horne did not respond to follow-up questions related to metrics used.

A previously released batch of records obtained by 12News after a public records request showed more than 18,000 ESA account holders made at least one “unallowable” purchase during 11 months. That would be 18% of an estimated 100,000 total ESA accounts. Critics said that percentage was unacceptable.  Horne did not dispute that percentage and told 12News most of the transactions were “mistakes.” He said there is a difference between misspending and fraud.

The same audit showed 20% of transactions analyzed in a “high-risk group” of 385,000 purchases were deemed “unallowable.” Horne has taken issue with that 20% figure, previously reported by 12News. 

“This program is not only a good program. It is necessary to make sure students’ needs are met,” Horne said.

Horne has made contradictory claims about the program. He said in 2023, “no ESA parent” had been reimbursed to buy a $500 LEGO set. Records later showed that between 2023 and 2025, parents purchased more than 500 LEGO sets costing at least $500.  Last year, Horne denied that ESA money was spent on babysitting. Records later showed two nearly $500 payments for the purpose of “babysitting.”