Shaw needs at least 58% of remaining ballots to beat Dahl in Tucson Council primary race

Sadie Shaw needs to win at least 58 percent of the remaining ballots in the Democratic primary to knock Tucson Councilman Kevin Dahl out of his Ward 3 seat.

The Tucson Unified School District Governing Board member was trailing Dahl by 138 votes Tuesday night in the primary election.

Dahl had 2,993 votes, while Shaw had 2,855 in the North Side ward when the City Clerk’s Office released the initial results after polls closed on Election Day.

In the uncontested Republican primary, Janet Wittenbraker had 1,415 votes in the ward. Another 11 votes were cast for unrecognized Libertarian write-in candidates.

But a number of ballots remained to be tallied because they were cast on or near Election Day and still had to go through a signature-verification process before they could be counted.

A total of 812 ballots remain to be reviewed and counted in the Ward 3 contest, according to an update posted Thursday on the Tucson City Clerk’s website.

Election officials noted that the “figures include ballots that have completed signature verification and been sent to tabulation, as well as ballots currently undergoing signature verification.”

They added that “totals are subject to change as additional ballots are verified and as voters resolve outstanding signature issues through the curing process.”

Voters have until 5 p.m. Friday to cure, or fix, any problems with their ballots.

Assuming the remaining ballots were cast in the Democratic primary, were verified and do not include undervotes (when voters don’t case a vote for either candidate) or overvotes (where they vote for both candidates), or include invalid write-in entries, Shaw would have to win 476 of those 812 votes to overcome Dahl’s lead. (The current tally of the Ward 3 Democratic race includes 10 overvotes and six undervotes; there were 32 write-ins and 8 undervotes on GOP ballots.)

That would give her 3,331 votes and a two-vote lead over Dahl’s 3,329 votes.

If Shaw won 475 of the remaining votes, the race would be tied at 3,330 votes each and, under state law, would be decided by drawing lots.

With at least some of the ballots likely to have been cast in the Republican primary, the percentage of Democratic votes Shaw would need to win the primary would increase as the GOP total increased. The floor for her win would be 58% of the remaining pool of ballots.

For example, if the remaining ballots break down with the same 80% Democratic and 20% Republican ratio as the rest of the votes, Shaw would need 60% of 650 hypothetical Democratic ballots left.

The Tucson City Clerk’s Office plans to tabulate the remaining ballots on Monday, Aug. 11.

Dahl proclaimed victory on election night.

“This is a victory that needs to be confirmed,” he said. “It’s a close call, but not too close to call.”

Shaw said on Facebook she voted on Election Day so her ballot was among those awaiting tabulation.

“Every vote reflects a Ward 3 voice, and in a race this tight, it’s important not to jump to conclusions,” Shaw said. “I’m still waiting for all the votes to be counted, which we’ve heard might not be finished until Monday.was waiting until all votes were counted.”

Turnout in the Ward 3 race stood at just under 29 percent.

The winner of the Ward 3 Democratic primary will face Wittenbraker, who has previously unsuccessfully run for mayor and county supervisor, in the Nov. 4 general election.

A total of 632 votes remained to be counted in Ward 5, where Selina Barajas was leading Jesse Lugo by 836 votes. There is no GOP candidate in that ward, so barring a successful write-in campaign, Barajas will take office in December, after the November general election.

A total of 1,644 votes remained to be counted in Ward 6, where Miranda Schubert was leading Leighton Rockafellow by 2,718 votes. On the Republican side, political novice Jay Tolkoff garnered 1,500 votes without any primary opponent.