What does the third driest winter on record mean for Phoenicians?

PHOENIX — The meteorological winter, which runs from December through February, will go down as one of the driest on record in Arizona.

Specifically, Phoenix experienced its third driest winter season on record, leaving residents and officials bracing for a potentially scorching spring and summer.

The lack of rainfall has been a persistent concern, with long stretches between measurable precipitation. Experts point to a confluence of factors, primarily the influence of La Niña, as the driving force behind this arid winter.

“We’re seeing the effects of a typical La Niña pattern,” explains 12News meteorologist Chris Dunn. “The main storm track has been focused well to the north all winter, diverting storms away from Arizona and into the Pacific Northwest. This has resulted in significantly reduced precipitation across the Southwest, including Arizona.”

La Niña, characterized by cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, is known to influence weather patterns globally. In the Southwest, it typically leads to drier-than-average conditions.

Flagstaff has also experienced a severe lack of winter precipitation, receiving just 11.2 inches of snow this winter compared with 68.4 inches in a normal season.  

The consequences of this dry winter are far-reaching:

• Water Resources: Reduced rain and snow translate to lower water levels in reservoirs and rivers, potentially impacting water availability for agriculture and urban areas.
• Wildfire Risk: The dry conditions increase the risk of wildfires, posing a threat to communities and natural ecosystems.
• Agriculture: Farmers face challenges with irrigation and crop yields.

Looking ahead, the outlook for spring remains concerning. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is forecasting a high likelihood of continued dry and warm conditions. With more than half the state currently in what’s considered “extreme” drought conditions aren’t likely to improve significantly any time soon.

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