Democrats hold most Southern Az districts but lose ground in Legislature

After all the votes were counted in the 2024 election, Democrats in Southern Arizona managed to win a House of Representatives seat in GOP-leaning Legislative District 17, but lost a House seat in neighboring LD 16.

Statewide, Republicans expanded their majorities in both the House and the Senate by one seat in each chamber. Republicans will hold 32 of the 60 seats in the Arizona House and 17 of the 30 seats in the Arizona Senate.

The GOP victories came despite Democrats spending more than $10 million in battleground districts across the state.

Several Southern Arizona Democrats will serve in leadership positions in the House and Senate.

Here’s what the Tucson-area legislative landscape will look like:

LD 16

Democrats lost ground in Legislative District 16, where Democrat Keith Seaman, who won an underdog victory in 2022 in this GOP-leaning district, lost his bid for reelection.

In the House race, two Republicans outpaced Seaman. Rep. Teresa Martinez won 36 percent of the vote, while carnival owner Chris Lopez won 33 percent. Seaman trailed Lopez by 3,655 votes, winning 31 percent of the vote.

In the Senate race, incumbent Republican TJ Shope captured 56 percent of the vote to defeat Stacey Seaman, Keith Seaman’s daughter.

Most of District’s 16’s voters live in Pinal County, but about 17 percent live in northwestern Pima County, including precincts in Picture Rocks. Less than 1 percent live in Maricopa County.

The mostly rural district leans GOP, with 34 percent voters registered as Republicans, 28 percent registered as Democrats and 38 percent independent of the two major parties as of Nov. 5.

LD 17

Democrats managed to win an upset victory in Legislative District 17, where Democrat Kevin Volk defeated Republican Cory McGarr by 5,081 votes. 

Volk, who works for his family’s real-estate firm, won 34 percent of the vote, outpacing both McGarr, who had 32 percent, and fellow Republican incumbent Rep. Rachel Jones, who won another term with 33 percent.

As of Nov. 5, 38 percent of LD17 voters were Republicans, 28 percent were Democrats and 34 percent were independent of those two parties, according to the Arizona Secretary of State’s Office. The district includes precincts in Pinal County’s Saddlebrooke and Pima County’s Oro Valley and Marana, as well as Tucson’s East Side and Vail.

Republican Vince Leach won the Senate seat with 51 percent of the vote over Democrat John McLean, who was killed when a suspected drunk driver collided with his car on Friday, Nov. 15.

Leach has previously served  terms in the Senate (and, previously two terms in the House) before he was defeated in the 2022 GOP primary by current Sen. Justine Wadsack. Leach defeated Wadsack in this year’s primary.

LD 18

District 18 will return its current Democratic delegation to the Legislature next year.

Sen. Priya Sundareshan did not have a challenger this year. She will be serving as Senate minority leader for the Democratic caucus.

In the House race, Rep. Nancy Gutierrez won 39 percent of the vote in her reelection bid, while Rep. Chris Mathis won 36 percent. Republican Len Rosenblum won 26 percent.

Gutierrez will be serving as assistant minority leader in the Democratic House caucus.

District 18 is a relatively compact urban/suburban district entirely within Pima County. It includes neighborhoods near I-10 and Cortaro Farms Road, the Casas Adobes area, the Catalina Foothills and Tucson’s east side between Country Club and Camino Seco. Broadway forms the southern boundary.

Given the Democratic lean of the district – 40 percent Democratic, 27 percent Republican and 33 percent not registered with neither party, as of Nov. 5 – District 18 is considered “outside of competitive range” by the Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission.

LD 19

There were no changes to the GOP makeup of the District 19 delegation.

Sen. David Gowan captured 63 percent of the vote against Democrat Bob Karp in his campaign for a fourth term. Gowan previously served four terms in the Arizona House of Representatives, including two years as speaker of the House, after first winning a seat in 2008.

Reps. Gail Griffin won 39 percent of the vote and Rep Lupe Diaz won 35 percent of the vote against Democratic challenger Gregg Frostrom Jr.

Nearly half of LD 19 voters — 48 percent — live in Cochise County. Roughly 34 percent live in southeastern Pima County, with the remainder scattered around Graham, Greenlee and Santa Cruz counties. The GOP-leaning district is considered by the Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission to be “outside the competitive range,” with Republicans making up 43 percent of voters, Democrats making up 24 percent and voters not registered with either party making up 33 percent as of Nov. 5.

LD 20

All three Democrats in District 20 – Sen. Sally Ann Gonzales and Reps. Alma Hernandez and Betty Villegas – were unopposed.

District 20, which includes precincts on Tucson’s west side, leans heavily Democratic, with 47 percent of voters registered with the Democratic Party, 16 percent registered as Republicans and 37 percent not registered with either major party, as of Nov. 5.

LD 21

Voters in District 21 supported the incumbent Democratic delegation.

Sen. Rosanna Gabaldon was unopposed in her run for a third term in the Senate. She previously served four terms in the House of Representatives.

Gabaldon will serve as minority whip for the Senate Democratic caucus.

In the House race, Democrat Rep. Consuelo Hernandez won 39 percent of the vote and Rep. Stephanie Stahl Hamilton won 34 percent of the vote against Republican Christopher Kibbey, who won 27 percent of the vote.

District 21 includes neighborhoods in central Tucson south of Broadway between Fourth Avenue and Pantano Road. It stretches south through Sahuarita and takes in Southern Arizona communities such as Nogales and Bisbee as well as the Buenos Aires National Wildlife Refuge.

Roughly 73 percent of the district’s voters live in Pima County, while 22 percent live in Santa Cruz and 5 percent live in Cochise County. A total of 40 percent of the voters are registered Democrats, 21 percent are registered Republicans and 39 percent aren’t registered with either party as of Nov. 5. Given the Democratic voter-registration advantage, District 21 is considered “outside of competitive range” by the Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission. With about half of the registered voters identifying as Hispanic and roughly 3 percent identifying as Native American, it’s also considered a “minority majority” district.

LD District 23

While Democrats had hoped to flip a House seat in Legislative District 23, the Southwestern Arizona district will continue to have one of Arizona’s few bipartisan delegations after the Republican incumbent they targeted emerged with the most votes in the two-seat race.

Republican Rep. Michele Peña won 35 percent of the vote and Democrat Rep. Mariana Sandoval won 34 percent. Democrat Matias Rosales, who served on the San Luis City Council, trailed the incumbents with 32 percent of the vote.

While Democrats, at 33 percent of the voters, hold the registration advantage over the 25 percent of Republicans, the 42 percent of independent voters can swing either way.

Democratic incumbent Sen. Brian Fernandez defeated Republican Michelle Altherr with 53 percent of the vote.

The largest chunk of Legislative District 23’s voters — 47 percent — live in Yuma County, 34 percent live in rural and suburban Maricopa County and a small number of precincts are in Pinal County. Roughly 19 percent of the district’s voters live in Pima County as the district stretches east to includes precincts on the Tohono O’odham Nation, including the town of Sells, and around the Mission San Xavier.