Democrats leading in Tucson’s GOP-leaning Legislative District 17

While many votes remain to be counted, Democrats were ahead of GOP candidates in Legislative District 17, a Tucson-area district with a significant Republican voter registration advantage.

Across Arizona, Democrats led in races for 32 seats in the state House, which would give them a two-seat majority, and were ahead in 15 seats in state Senate races, which would mean a tie in that chamber.

In the race for two LD17 House seats, challenging Democrat Kevin Volk was ahead of incumbent Republican Rep. Rachel Jones by more than 6,845 votes as of midnight on Election Day. Rep. Cory McGarr trailed Volk by nearly 8,500 votes.

Volk had 37 percent of the vote, Jones had 32 percent and McGarr had 31 percent.

“We put in a hell of an effort,” Volk said during the Democratic Party’s election night party at Hotel Congress. “It’s gonna be a close race. We’ve just got to give it time to go through the process and get an accurate count.”

In the race for the LD17 Senate seat, Democrat John McLean had captured 53 percent of the vote to Republican Vince Leach’s 47 percent.

“It’s gonna be close,” McLean predicted early in the evening at Hotel Congress.

The vote count at midnight Tuesday included a combination of early votes that were tabulated before Election Day as well as some of the ballots cast at polling places in Pima and Pinal counties on Election Day. Election officials say it will take several days to validate the
remaining vote-by-mail ballots via a signature check before tabulating
them.

The final count across the state isn’t expected to be complete until next
week as voters have until Sunday to cure their ballots if election
officials have seen any irregularities.

LD17 includes precincts in Pinal County’s Saddlebrooke and Pima County’s Oro Valley and Marana, as well as Tucson’s East Side and Vail.

Although Republicans have a 9-percentage-point voter-registration advantage in LD 17, Democrats targeted the possibility of capturing a seat or two in the district. Strategists noted that Democrats Mark Kelly, Katie Hobbs and Adrian Fontes all won LD17 in 2022 and say the district is now represented by some of the most extreme Republicans in the Legislature.

Election officials will validate the remaining vote-by-mail ballots via a signature check before tabulating them, which is expected to continue through the weekend.

Legislative District 17 is one of three Tucson-area districts that are crucial to the balance of power in the Legislature next year. The others are Legislative Districts 16 and 23.

Over the last two years, Republicans have had a narrow hold on power in the Arizona Legislature, with a 31-29 advantage in the House of Representatives and a 16-14 advantage in the Senate. If the early returns hold up, Democrats would flip the House and earn a tie in the Senate.

District 16

In GOP-leaning District 16, which now has bipartisan representation in the House of Representatives, Democratic Rep. Keith Seaman was narrowly trailing Republican opponent Chris Lopez by 681 votes.

His seatmate, Republican Teresa Martinez, was ahead of Seaman by 3,763 votes in the race for two seats in the House of Representatives.

Most of District’s 16’s voters live in Pinal County, but about 17 percent live in Northwestern Pima County.

Republican Sen. T.J. Shope was ahead of Democratic challenger Stacey Seaman, the daughter of Keith Seaman, with 54 percent of the vote.

Legislative District 23

In Legislative District 23, Democrats were falling short of their campaign to oust a Republican in the Arizona House of Representatives.

In the race for two House seats in this Democrat-leaning district, Republican Michele Peña had captured 16,639 votes, while Democratic state Rep. Mariana Sandoval had 16,331 and fellow Democrat Matias Rosales had 15,385 votes. 

Peña overcame the district’s Democratic leaning to win a House seat two years ago.

Democratic incumbent Sen. Brian Fernandez had captured 52 percent of the vote against Republican Michelle Altherr.

The largest chunk of Legislative District 23’s voters—47 percent—live in Yuma County and 34 percent live in rural Maricopa County. The district stretches east into Pima County, which is home to 19 percent of the voters, including precincts across the Tohono O’odham Nation, such as in the community of Sells around the San Xavier Mission.

District 18

Democratic Reps. Nancy Gutierrez, with 40 percent of the vote, and Chris Mathis, with 38 percent of the vote, were ahead of Republican challenger Leonard “Len” Rosenblum’s 22 percent of the vote in the race for two House seats in this Democratic-leaning district.

District 18 is a relatively compact urban/suburban district entirely within Pima County. It includes neighborhoods near I-10 and Cortaro Farms Road, the Casas Adobes area, the Catalina Foothills and Tucson’s east side between Country Club and Camino Seco. Broadway forms the southern boundary.

Democratic Sen. Priya Sundareshan ran unopposed for a second term.

District 19

Republican Sen. David Gowan was leading Democratic challenger Bob Karp with 60 percent of the vote in this heavily Republican district whose voters mostly reside in Eastern Pima County and Cochise County, with some scattered in precincts in Graham, Greenlee and Santa Cruz counties.

Republican House Reps. Gail Griffin, with 39 percent of the vote, and Lupe Diaz, with 43 percent of the vote, were knocking back a challenge from Democrat Greg Fostrum Jr., who had 27 percent of the vote in the race for two House seats.

District 20

Sen. Sally Ann Gonzales and Reps. Betty Villegas and Alma Hernandez, all Tucson Democrats, were all unopposed this year.

District 21

In the race for two House seats in this heavily Democratic district, Democratic Rep. Consuelo Hernandez had won 40 percent of the vote and Democratic Rep. Stephanie Stahl Hamilton had won 36 percent of the vote, putting the incumbents ahead of Republican challenger Christopher Kibbey, who had won 24 percent of the vote.

District 21 includes neighborhoods in central Tucson south of Broadway between 4th Avenue and Pantano Road. It stretches south through Sahuarita and takes in Southern Arizona communities such as Nogales and Bisbee as well as the Buenos Aires National Wildlife Refuge.

Democratic Sen. Rosanna Gabaldon, who is seeking her third term in the Senate after serving four terms in the House of Representatives, was unopposed.